Why the Resurgence of Manufacturing Jobs Is Unlikely

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Recent discussions in the media have focused on the prospect of bringing back manufacturing jobs to the United States. Despite the bipartisan interest in reviving U.S. manufacturing employment, a closer look at the data reveals a different narrative. Before delving into the details, it’s essential to trace the historical trajectory of U.S. manufacturing employment.

From its inception in 1939 with 9 million workers, U.S. manufacturing employment peaked at 19.5 million workers in 1979. However, since 1979, there has been a consistent decline in manufacturing employment, with significant downturns during the dotcom burst in 2001 and the Great Recession in 2008. Notably, post these downturns, U.S. manufacturing jobs failed to recover, and as of December 2016, the sector employs 12.2 million people.

The crucial question arises: why haven’t these jobs returned? While there are various contributing factors, one significant aspect highlighted by Bureau of Labor Statistics data is productivity. Over the past 30 years, a typical U.S. manufacturing worker has become over 2.5 times more productive than in 1987. This means that the output achieved by 100 workers in 1987 can now be accomplished by only 40 workers.

Despite the substantial gains in productivity, the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment has been relatively modest, standing at 30% (100 workers reduced to 70) since 1987. Given the increased productivity, one might expect a ratio of 40 workers today for every 100 in 1987 to maintain the same output. However, the current ratio is 70 workers, indicating that total production of goods must be higher than in 1987. This underscores the fundamental issue: U.S. manufacturing employment is primarily a numbers game.

(Number of workers) x (Productivity per worker) = Output

Without a substantial increase in the demand for domestically manufactured goods, which would boost output, there is no economically viable method to rejuvenate employment in this sector. Offering tax breaks and incentives to bring jobs back from overseas cannot compete with the productivity gains derived from technological advancements over the past three decades.

Another significant factor contributing to the reluctance of manufacturing jobs to return lies in the evolving nature of the U.S. economy. The focus has shifted towards services and digital goods over physical ones. Examining the data, the business sector’s labor productivity has increased, but employment has also seen growth, albeit to a lesser extent. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes manufacturing in the “Business” sector, the broader economic trends do not align with those of the manufacturing sector.

Given the likelihood that U.S. manufacturing employment will not rebound to 1987 levels, one viable strategy for success in today’s economy is to acquire skills that are in demand. Programming stands out as a recommendation due to its marketability, and unlike professions like medicine or law, becoming a proficient programmer doesn’t require extensive schooling or significant financial investment. The primary barriers are time and effort, and with dedication, one can build a successful career by developing programming skills and creating impactful projects, such as websites, apps, or data analyses.

Ditch your less attractive friends

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If you’re an attractive guy aware of women’s interest but not achieving the desired results, consider this insight from my years of experimenting with social situations and dating. A game-changing strategy is to travel alone, despite initial skepticism. This shift can significantly elevate your success with women.

As an attractive individual, many women likely appreciate you, desire to spend time with you, and envision regular meetups. What might be hindering this potential? Your friends. While women may embrace you, they might hesitate when it comes to accepting your friends. This reluctance stems from the friends not being as attractive as you, making it easier to sell yourself as an individual than as part of a group.

When I navigate social scenes solo, I experience more approaches, smoother interactions, and a heightened desire from women to be around me. It feels like pressing the “win” button. However, when accompanied by friends, they can become a hindrance. Not because of any flaw in them, but because women are less inclined to include average or less attractive individuals into their social circles. Your attractiveness benefits you, but it may not extend to your friends.

Maintaining friendships is important, but consider cultivating a lifestyle where you spend significant time pursuing your interests alone. Attend social events solo and engage in activities that captivate you independently. Why? When you’re not tethered to a group, it becomes easier for women and new social circles to accept you. Trying to force acceptance of both you and your friends as a package can be challenging.